Planned 10 Vulcan Launches, Delivered Just One: What Went Wrong?
The Ambitious Plan
At the start of 2025, ULA had set high hopes: company executives — including CEO Tory Bruno — projected the year could become the busiest ever for ULA, with up to 20 launches planned. Roughly half of those were supposed to be flown by Vulcan, representing a dramatic shift from their legacy rocket, Atlas V. That would signal a clear transition toward a Vulcan-centric future.
The logic made sense: Vulcan had recently completed its formal certification with the United States Space Force (USSF) for national-security missions, clearing the way for the new heavy-lift vehicle to carry important payloads.
Infrastructure-wise, too: ULA was building out a second vertical integration facility (VIF) and mobile launch platform at their Florida site to enable faster, more frequent processing of rockets — a build-up intended to support the once-every-two-weeks cadence they envisioned.
What Actually Happened
Despite the optimism, the actual numbers fell well short of the target. As of late 2025:
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ULA is now expecting to end the year with only about six launches total — five on Atlas V, and just one on Vulcan.
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That’s a far cry from “up to 10 Vulcan rockets,” let alone 20 total launches. The Vulcan-only launch took place on August 12, 2025, carrying a USSF-106 mission for the USSF — marking the first national-security payload delivered by Vulcan.
Why the shortfall? Several factors:
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An earlier flight (October 2024) of Vulcan had a problem: one of its solid rocket boosters suffered a malfunction (a nozzle issue), which triggered an investigation and delayed the schedule.
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Even though that issue was reportedly fixed, and hardware (cores, boosters) for additional Vulcan rockets exists — the slower-than-expected pace of certification, integration, and customer-payload readiness slowed everything down.
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The demand remains high (especially from major customers like Amazon’s broadband-satellite constellation and USSF’s national-security launches), but practical limits — on range scheduling, pad availability, rocket prep time — constrained what could actually fly this year.
What the Single Vulcan Launch Means
That lone Vulcan launch in August 2025 wasn’t just a token launch — it was a milestone. It delivered a national-security payload for the USSF, marking the rocket’s first operational mission under its certification.
It also shows ULA’s commitment to Vulcan going forward: they’re still building rockets, stockpiling boosters, upgrading infrastructure, and preparing for an increase in cadence.
Analysts note, though, that Vulcan’s ramp-up resembles how other new rockets behaved — slow at first, cautious, building reliability before increasing frequency
What’s Next: Looking toward 2026
Despite the disappointing launch tally in 2025, ULA isn’t abandoning its ambitions. In fact:
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The company projects that by 2026, it could be launching 20 to 25 missions per year, thanks to the expanded infrastructure, multiple rockets ready, and growing backlog.
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The heavy-lift variants, including the largest configuration with six strap-on boosters, are still waiting for first flight. Their certification would open the door to heavier and more demanding payloads — including for national security and commercial megaconstellations.
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If things go smoothly, 2026 might finally see the tempo of “two launches per month” that ULA once described as their target.
What It Means for the Space Launch Industry
The Vulcan’s slow start in 2025 is a cautionary tale about how difficult it is to transition from a legacy rocket fleet to a next-generation launcher — even with backlog, infrastructure, and demand.
For customers — governments, satellite-internet companies, etc. — this may prompt them to continue diversifying their launch providers or sticking longer with proven rockets like Atlas V or Falcon 9 from SpaceX until Vulcan demonstrates sustained cadence.
For ULA, this year will likely be viewed as a “growing-pains” phase: a learning curve as Vulcan proves itself and the company adapts to the demands of frequent launches. How they manage that curve will shape ULA's long-term competitiveness.
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